Can there be a window of slight improvement in Sino US relations?, Depth | Antony Blinken is going to visit China for Sino US relations | Antony Blinken is going to visit China

As agreed by China and the US, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China from June 18 to 19. With the news of the "official announcement" of the Chinese side on the 14th, Antony Blinken's much watched visit to China was finally "finalized".

This visit will be the highest ranking official of the Biden administration to date, and it will also be the second visit by the US Secretary of State to China after more than four years. Against the backdrop of the difficulties in China US relations and the recent increased interaction between the two sides, Antony Blinken's visit has attracted great attention and has become an important window to observe how China and the United States will meet each other in the future.

Critical moment

The two heads of state agreed to maintain strategic communication and conduct regular consultations between the diplomatic teams of both sides.

As an important measure to implement the consensus reached at the meeting between the two heads of state, Antony Blinken's visit to China began to be planned. At that time, many analysts believed that this would help improve the turnaround of China US relations.

However, a series of erroneous words and actions by the US subsequently led to a stagnation in high-level exchanges between the two countries. In particular, in February this year, the incident of Chinese civilian unmanned airship accidentally entering US airspace became an excuse for Antony Blinken to unilaterally announce "postponing his visit to China", and the relationship between the two countries was once again frozen.

Until recently, the "cold ice" has only "melted". In May this year, US National Security Advisor Sullivan and China's Director of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held an eight hour closed door meeting in Vienna. Subsequently, the exchange of visits between senior officials from China and the United States created more substantive communication opportunities, including the visit of the Chinese Minister of Commerce to the United States for talks with American officials, as well as the visit of CIA Director Burns to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials, and so on.

Since June, the momentum of high-level interaction between China and the United States has not diminished. On the 2nd, China's newly appointed Ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, met with the Deputy Secretary of the US Treasury. On the 5th, Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Pacific Affairs Conda of the United States Department of State and Senior Director of China Affairs at the White House National Security Council, Isabella, visited China and held meetings and talks with several senior Chinese officials. On the day of the official announcement of Antony Blinken's visit to China, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang also had a telephone conversation with Antony Blinken at request.

However, compared to the diplomatic and economic fields, high-level exchanges in the defense fields between China and the United States have not resumed. At the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu did not hold formal talks with US Defense Minister Austin. The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense previously stated that dialogue cannot be without principles and communication cannot be without bottom lines. The current difficulties in military exchanges between the two sides are entirely the responsibility of the United States.

Antony Blinken's visit to China is widely regarded as a continuation of the recent high-level interaction between China and the United States. When talking about this visit, the American media pointed out that this will be Antony Blinken's first visit to China since he became Secretary of State in January 2021, and he will also become the first cabinet official to visit China since the establishment of the Biden administration. The last time a US Secretary of State visited China was during Pompeo's tenure in October 2018.

American public opinion also uses "stability" and "restart" to describe the significance of Antony Blinken's visit to China US relations, and believes that despite the tension in China US relations, the two countries still want to maintain high-level diplomacy. "This is an opportunity for both sides to continue expressing their concerns and perhaps find ways to resolve their differences," said Ge Laiyi, Director of the Asian Program at the German Marshall Foundation. Kanda, on the other hand, referred to this as "a very crucial contact at a critical moment in the relationship between the two countries.".

Seeking a stable window period

Wu Xinbo, Dean of the International Studies Institute at Fudan University, stated that the previous US Secretary of State often achieved a visit to China within a few months after taking office, which is a normal diplomatic model for high-level coordination between China and the United States. But there are two reasons why Biden only sent the Secretary of State to visit China more than two years after taking office.

Firstly, the Biden administration prioritizes strengthening allies and is eager to restore this most important strategic asset that was damaged during the Trump era. Moreover, the Biden administration's policy towards China mainly focuses on attracting allies and partners to engage in major country competition, so there is no rush to directly engage with China.

Secondly, after the Biden administration came to power, they believed that the previous US policy of engagement with China had failed, and that in the future, they should not engage with China for the sake of contact. Therefore, they deliberately made a stance, remained indifferent to China, and kept a distance.

"So why did Antony Blinken decide to visit China now?" Wu Xinbo said, "because the situation is stronger than people - since Biden came to power, although he believed that the policy of engagement with China had failed, diplomatic contact itself was still indispensable. Through the engagement, the United States first wanted to draw China's support on issues of concern to the United States, with the need for cooperation with China. Second, the United States believed that the risk of Sino US relations was rising and needed to be controlled. This is also the reason why the United States took the initiative to send Lincoln and other cabinet ministers to visit China since the China US dollar first Bali meeting."

Wu Xinbo said that in February this year, the United States hyped up the "airship incident" and the political atmosphere towards China in the United States became hysterical. The Biden administration is concerned that sending a Secretary of State to China may face domestic political pressure. On the other hand, the visit to China does not depend on the unilateral the final say of the United States, but also on the willingness and schedule of the Chinese side. Therefore, it has been delayed for 4 months until now.

Da Wei, Director of the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University, pointed out that tensions and competitiveness in China US relations have intensified in the past few years. During the Bali meeting between the two countries last year, they sought to stabilize China US relations, which led to the work level talks between China and the United States in Langfang, Hebei in December last year. Subsequently, the "airship incident" had a negative impact on high-level contacts between the two sides, but since May this year, there have been some signs of partial stabilization in Sino US relations - although structural issues remain prominent, a window for seeking stability has opened up in the short term. Both sides feel that the current atmosphere is more appropriate, and it is time to restart work and promote the implementation of the consensus reached by the head of state on stabilizing bilateral relations.

There are differences and collaborations

Wu Xinbo pointed out that during Antony Blinken's visit to China, China and the United States will have different priorities on the agenda, and there will also be areas of common focus.

For China, the first priority is to focus on the guiding principles of China US relations. Last year, the two heads of state unanimously agreed on the importance of establishing guiding principles for China US relations, and tasked the work teams of both sides to follow up and negotiate, striving to reach a consensus as soon as possible on the basis of the existing consensus.

Wu Xinbo said that China believes that it is unacceptable for the United States to define China US relations based on competition and use it as the guiding ideology of its policy towards China.This is also what Qin Gang stressed again when he talked to Antony Blinken at request on the 14th.

Secondly, the Chinese side is also concerned about major issues that involve immediate interests.In addition, the US will also be required to correct its erroneous practices, including containing and suppressing China in areas such as economy, trade, and technology, forming cliques against China internationally, and setting obstacles in cultural exchanges between China and the US. China will raise concerns in these areas.

From the perspective of the United States, it is possible to continue the rhetoric on issues such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, using issues such as "changing the status quo" and "freedom of navigation" as examples. Antony Blinken may also talk about China's investigation of Meguiar Light and the issue of fentanyl. The focus of the US also includes whether it can promote the resumption of communication between the two armies.

In addition to some agendas that show differences, China and the United States will also jointly focus on potential areas of cooperation.

"The first is macroeconomic policy coordination. Although Antony Blinken is not in charge of the economy and will not go deep into this topic, this is an area where China and the United States can talk when the U.S. economy is not performing well." Wu Xinbo said, "The second is climate change. The third is to exchange views on local regional issues, including the Ukraine crisis, the Korean Peninsula issue, and so on. It may not be possible to reach agreement, but it will seek the possibility of cooperation or coordination on these issues."

Drive high-level engagement?

On Antony Blinken's visit, Reuters quoted American officials as saying that Washington did not expect a "long list of deliverables", but hoped to keep the high-level communication channels open with Beijing, "to reduce the risk of competition with Beijing turning into conflict".

Both governments hope that this visit will facilitate a series of visits by senior US officials to China this summer. Potential visitors include Treasury Secretary Yellen, Commerce Secretary Raymond, and climate envoy Kerry.

When assessing the significance and effect of Antony Blinken's trip, Wu Xinbo believed that, first, it shows that Biden has re recognized the importance of contact with China after more than two years in office. Secondly, the Biden administration, which originally emphasized competition with China, has now expressed its desire to seek potential areas of cooperation and become pragmatic. Third, after Antony Blinken's visit to China, high-level exchanges between China and the United States are expected to be frequent. In addition, it can be observed whether specific issues are expected to make progress, such as cultural exchanges between China and the United States.

Wu Xinbo added that in the field of military to military exchanges that the US hopes to break through, everything still depends on whether the US demonstrates sincerity and corrects mistakes through practical actions. However, it is not ruled out that some work level mechanisms such as the China US Maritime Military Security Consultation Mechanism Meeting may be partially restored in the future.

Da Wei believes that as the highest leader of the US State Department, the visit of the US Secretary of State to China again after more than four years is of great significance and also indicates that China and the US are gradually stepping out of the interference of the "airship incident" on bilateral relations. However, it is obviously impractical to solve many problems between China and the United States through a single visit by Antony Blinken. What is more realistic and predictable is whether China and the United States can reach or restart some dialogue mechanisms, restore contact at the work and ministerial levels, and open the door to more exchanges in the future.

Listen to what they say and observe what they do

Wu Xinbo believes that currently, the relationship between China and the United States is still fluctuating at a low level, which refers to the fact that the relationship between China and the United States has not significantly stopped falling and rebounded since Biden's two years in office. Fluctuation refers to the instability and emergence of new difficulties and challenges in the relationship between China and the United States, which is easily affected by various events. The reason for this is that the United States regards China as its main strategic competitor, and there are strong anti China political forces in the country, which are the biggest obstacles to the improvement and development of Sino US relations.

For some time now, the US has been sending contradictory signals in its relationship with China: on the one hand, it is seeking communication, and on the other hand, it is constantly making small actions to suppress and contain China.

Wu Xinbo believes that there may be a window period of slight improvement in Sino US relations until next year's US election. However, due to the "headwind" of domestic politics towards China in the United States, the Biden administration, as a weak government, will still prioritize domestic political considerations. "In short, there is an opportunity but not a chance to improve China US relations. We cannot be overly optimistic about this."

Da Wei pointed out that there is reason to believe that the relationship between China and the United States will be relatively stable in the second half of the year, but various problems still exist, and the possibility of accidents cannot be ruled out. Both China and the United States have a subjective willingness to stabilize their relations. As for the objective outcome, it depends on whether the United States is willing to go against China, stop using competition as a pretext to harm China's sovereignty, security, and development interests, and take practical actions to promote the return of China US relations to a healthy and stable development track.