Can Thailand break the political deadlock by voting again next week?, Depth | "Black Horse" Pita's Challenge to Prime Minister's Position Completely Defeated for Thai Party | Far Progressive Party | Pita | Prime Minister Election | Thailand

On August 16th, the Thai Constitutional Court rejected an appeal calling for a review of whether the parliamentary rejection of the nomination of Prime Minister Bhutta, the leader of the Far Progressive Party, was unconstitutional. This means that it has been confirmed that there is no hope for Bhutta to challenge the Thai Prime Minister's throne. On the same day, Thai National Assembly President Vano announced that the parliament had decided to hold a joint meeting on August 22nd to elect a new Prime Minister. Since the May parliamentary elections, the new government in Thailand has been struggling to produce, causing concern from the outside world. Can Seth, the prime minister candidate elected by the Thai party, the second largest party in the Thai House of Commons, successfully overcome the challenge after Pita's complete elimination? Can the political deadlock that has lasted for over three months be broken?

The third round of Prime Minister elections will be held

On the 16th local time, the appeal of the Far Progressive Party in Thailand was rejected by the Thai Constitutional Court, causing another blow to Bhutta.

According to the demands of the Far Progressive Party and its supporters, the Office of the Independent Institution of Thailand's Ombudsperson filed an appeal on July 24th, requesting the Constitutional Court to rule on whether the decision of the National Assembly to reject the nomination qualification of Prime Minister Bhutta's candidate is unconstitutional, and to suspend the process of selecting a new Prime Minister until a ruling is made.

On the 16th, the Thai Constitutional Court issued a statement stating that the more than 20 people who filed this appeal did not include the Prime Minister candidate himself, and their rights were not violated. Therefore, it has been decided to dismiss this appeal.

The Thai Constitutional Court also rejected the request to suspend the new Prime Minister election process, paving the way for the next round of Prime Minister elections.

According to reports, Thai National Assembly President Vano announced later on August 16th that a joint meeting has been scheduled for August 22nd to hold a new round of voting on the Prime Minister candidate.

On May 14th, Thailand held elections for the lower house of parliament, with the Far Progressive Party led by Bhutta winning 151 seats, becoming the biggest winner, giving the Thai party 141 seats. The Far Progressive Party subsequently convinced the Thai Party and six other small parties to form an eight party alliance, which elected Pita as the candidate for prime minister.

However, Bhutta, who became a popular candidate for Thailand's Prime Minister, suffered consecutive setbacks thereafter. To win the position of Prime Minister, Pita needs to obtain more than half of the support votes from 750 members of both houses. However, due to the fact that the majority of the 250 members of the House of Lords are conservatives appointed by the military and have consistently opposed some of the "radical" political views of the Far Progressive Party, Pita failed to pass the first round of the Prime Minister election. In the second vote, the parliament simply rejected Pita's candidacy for prime minister.

Due to Pita's two failed attempts to pass the level, the Far Progressive Party later announced that it would transfer the leadership to form a cabinet to the Thai Party. To the surprise of the outside world, the Thai Party recently announced that it has decided not to form a coalition with the Far Progressive Party and will attempt to form a new government. It will also elect real estate tycoon Saita Taweixin as its candidate for prime minister.

Why is the new government facing difficulties in production?

After the Thai Constitutional Court rejected the relevant appeals, it is widely believed that the latest developments mean that Bhutta has completely missed the prime minister, and the hope of the Far Progressive Party joining the ruling coalition is also slim.

"The rejection of the appeal by the Thai Constitutional Court this time means that both the parliament and the Constitutional Court, legislative and judicial institutions, have stated that Bhutta does not have the right to run for prime minister, completely ending the possibility of Bhutta wanting to participate in the election again through some procedure," said Zhou Shixin, associate researcher at the Asia Pacific Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies.

In fact, the Far Progressive Party was not the first party to win the position of the largest party in the Thai parliamentary elections, but ultimately failed to form a cabinet. Zhou Shixin pointed out that in 2019, the Thai party won the most seats in the lower house of parliament in elections, but ultimately failed to enter the cabinet. Although this situation is difficult to be accepted by voters and the party that received the most votes, it is understandable from the perspective of Thai election procedures.

Why is it that the new Thai Prime Minister and government are struggling to give birth after more than three months of delay?

Zhou Shixin stated that the crux of this phenomenon lies in the fact that the Thai Prime Minister election is not a single or direct election system, but a mixed election system. The national election is only held for the lower house of parliament, and the Prime Minister still needs to be jointly elected by the upper and lower houses of parliament.

From the current situation, although the Far Progressive Party and the Wat Thai Party, representing democratic forces, have won more than half of the seats in the lower house, the upper house is still controlled by traditional lawmakers. This means that there will still be many variables in the future Prime Minister elections. Zhou Shixin believes that although the democratic camp has won the support of voters, it has not gained an absolute advantage. Although traditional forces hope for political stability, they are also unwilling to easily give up their talents. Therefore, both sides are caught in a tense tug of war, constantly bargaining for power and benefits.

Professor Song Qingrun from the Asia Research Department of the School of Asia at Beijing Foreign Studies University believes that the main reasons for the Thai Prime Minister's "difficult childbirth" are twofold: firstly, the fragmented political party structure in Thailand has led to a lack of a political party or political alliance that can win support from more than half of the seats in both houses.

Secondly, there is a significant gap in political positions among all parties. Previously, the party alliance formed by the Far Progressive Party broke down, mainly due to the significant differences in its attitude towards the royal family compared to other political parties, touching on the most sensitive issue of amending the "Offensive to the Monarchy Law" and also violating the taboo of conservatives. In the process of negotiating to form a ruling coalition, the Thai party encountered similar problems in other aspects, although it did not violate the monarchy law.

Can the next candidate successfully pass the level?

After Pita was eliminated, the outside world is turning its attention to the next prime minister candidate, Seta, who is about to pass the level.

Saita, who is 61 years old, was originally the co-founder and head of a large Thai real estate developer, Shangsi Rui Company. The outside world has high expectations for the "new face of politics" Saita, believing that he will play a driving role in the future recovery and development of Thailand's economy.

However, it is not easy for the Thai party and Saita to secure a victory and face various challenges.

Firstly, after the two major political parties in the Thai House of Commons announced their separation, despite attempts by the Thai party to win, the Far Progressive Party has firmly refused to support Seta in the next round of prime minister elections. This has increased the pressure on the Thai party to seek support from conservative parties.

The Lianhe Zaobao quoted news that in order to persuade other political parties to form an alliance, the Party for Thailand even invited Thai people, who are pro military parties, to unite the Jianguo Party and the National Power Party to cooperate. After being strongly criticized by pro democratic organizations, the Thai party stated that an alliance agreement has not yet been reached, but acknowledged that progress has been made in the negotiations.

Secondly, after the separation from the Far Progressive Party, the credibility of the Thai Party has been in crisis.

Zhou Shixin stated that after clearly supporting Pita in both the first and second rounds of the Prime Minister's vote, the Thai party believes that it has fulfilled its commitment to the Far Progressive Party. In order to win the position of Prime Minister for the candidate, the Thai Party is using all resources and efforts, and even the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who founded the predecessor of the Thai Party - the Thai Love Thai Party, has postponed his return to China. However, the practice of actively cutting off from the Far Progressive Party, regardless of its tactical effectiveness, is often seen as a loss of political integrity. Other political parties may also doubt whether they will be abandoned in the future when cooperating with the Thai party.

In addition, members of the House of Lords have not yet made a clear statement, which also brings uncertainty to Seta's fate.

Zhou Shixin pointed out that although the Thai party is currently actively communicating with members of the House of Lords, hoping to seek understanding and support. From a historical perspective, some members of the House of Lords have some connections with the predecessor of the Thai Party, the Thai Love Thai Party. But many members of the House of Lords are appointed by the Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the National Power Party, Barwe, and they still hope to cooperate with Barwe, but their recognition of Seta is not high.

Song Qingrun also believes that due to the significant political variables in Thailand, it is still difficult to predict the future direction of the political situation. With changes in the political landscape and adjustments in the positions and interests of all parties, the Thai party is likely to reach an alliance agreement with its previous political opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether the candidate for prime minister elected by it can receive support, and whether the formed ruling coalition can safely receive more than half of the votes in the upper and lower houses of parliament, until the results of the vote are announced on the 22nd.

Challenges Facing the Future

The failure to form a new government for over three months has raised concerns about Thailand from the outside world.

Recently, some pro democracy organizations in Thailand took to the streets to protest against the House of Lords's refusal to allow the Far Progressive Party to form a government. Some Thai voters also angrily denounce the Thai Party for abandoning its allies and refer to the future government formed by the Thai Party and the traditionalists as the "Betrayer Alliance.".

After consecutive setbacks, Pita announced on the 16th that he will not give up and will continue to strive for governance. "The problem lies in Congress, so we will solve this problem in Congress.".

Is the political stalemate in Thailand still possible to persist? What challenges will the future Thai government face?

"From the current situation, the new Thai government will undoubtedly be a coalition government composed of multiple parties, which may be very fragile." Zhou Shixin believes that the complex and ever-changing international situation will also bring hidden concerns to Thailand's future.

Zhou Shixin stated that the political situation in Thailand is developing in an increasingly complex direction. With the continuous competition of various political forces, the political alliance formed for the Thai party is no longer only composed of democratic political forces, but also includes traditional and even current coalition political forces, which presents a situation of mutual compromise and relative mixing in Thailand's future political camps.

He believes that if Seta fails this time, Thailand's traditional forces may once again unite and challenge the position of Prime Minister. After all, the vast majority of the 250 seats in the House of Lords support the traditionalists. However, even if he wins the position of Prime Minister, he will face greater constraints in the House of Commons.

Song Qingrun also believes that the direction of Thailand's political situation is difficult to predict. Even in September this year, it is still unknown whether Thailand can establish a new government.

Song Qingrun stated that since Thailand held the parliamentary elections in May, there have been too many variables in the Thai political situation, and even the Prime Minister's election day can be temporarily postponed. The fragmented political party structure in Thailand also poses more variables and challenges to the Thai political arena. Who will become the Prime Minister, which political parties will be included in the ruling coalition, and how important cabinet positions will be allocated all require negotiation and game. The fragmented nature also means that Thailand will face a multi-party coalition government, which will have a significant impact on the stability of the new government and hinder governance efficiency.