"Retaliative consumption" is concentrated in these areas, and the consumption desire of Chinese people has increased | Data | Retaliation

"It's been over a week since I last opened an order, and I've been in this industry for over 20 years. This year, I've encountered a career bottleneck."

Liu Jie is a salesperson at a clothing store on Weihai Road in Jing'an District. She wonders why everyone is traveling and eating and drinking in retaliation, but she doesn't like to buy clothes anymore?

Consumer growth rate returns to 2019

If we look at the household consumption data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure of residents remained positive in the first and second quarters of this year, and the cumulative growth rate in the second quarter reached 7.6%, a new high in nearly a year.

If we exclude the factor of lower base last year, the compound growth rate of per capita cumulative consumption expenditure in the second quarter of this year is 5.38% compared to the same period in 2021. Exceeding the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter of 2019, it is similar to the average growth rate for the entire year of 2019.

That is to say, the overall consumption situation has basically recovered to the same level as the same period in 2019.

However, from the growth trend of CPI, the consumption desire of residents is showing a downward trend.

The CPI is the Consumer Price Index for residents, which reflects a decrease in consumer demand, sluggish consumption, and low desire due to the decline in prices.

According to the data from the Bureau of Statistics, since the beginning of this year, the synchronous growth of CPI has been limited, with a downward trend in growth. In July, it was even negative, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%.

Eating too much, wearing too little

If the overall consumption situation has recovered to 2019, why is the business of Liu Jie's clothing store not satisfactory?

Because the consumption structure of residents has changed - they eat more, wear less, and use less.

Comparing the consumption structure of residents in the first half of this year with the first half of 2019, it was found that the proportion of food, tobacco, and alcohol expenditure increased the most, reaching 2.1%. Except for healthcare, the proportion of other consumption decreased.

Among them, clothing decreased the most, accounting for a decrease of 1.1%.

In Wang Cheng's words, the theme of this year is to downgrade consumption. "Exquisite living" can be reduced as needed, with a focus on "spending small money, buying big happiness".

Wang Cheng is a financial risk manager who shares her daily expenses on Xiaohongshu. Her profile picture is also very straightforward, with a piggy bank paired with the words "making money".

According to Wang Cheng's account, her expenses in clothing and skincare have been significantly reduced this year. The original plan was to spend 5000 and 2000 yuan respectively, but by August, she had only spent less than 1400 yuan on clothing and almost no expenses on skincare, only 16 yuan.

"The basic principle is' one out, one in ', and the auxiliary principle is to avoid buying as much as possible," Wang Cheng said. After all, clothes can still be worn as long as they are not torn, saving a little is a bit.

Tourism consumption exceeds budget

But due to being held back for three years, tourism and vacation cannot be saved, which has become the only project that Wang Cheng has exceeded his budget this year. In July, Wang Cheng went on vacation to Sanya and spent over 10000 yuan.

Wang Cheng's consumption mentality is very representative, that is, "the tourism market is booming, and the cost of non essential goods has sharply decreased.".

In the first half of this year, the number of domestic tourists reached 2.384 billion, close to the total volume of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 63.9%.

The per capita expenditure on tourism has also increased, by 19.3% compared to 2022, and has also exceeded the per capita expenditure in 2019. Among them, the year-on-year increase in per capita domestic tourism expenses for urban residents reached 21.64%.

Mobile phones can be left unchanged

On the other hand, non essential items like mobile phones face the same "dismal" dilemma as "clothing" - as long as they can still be used, there is no need to replace them.

According to statistics, the shipment volume of smartphones in China in the first half of this year was the lowest in nearly a decade.

Xiaomi's revenue in the first quarter of this year decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, while its revenue in the mobile phone business declined even more, reaching 30.8%.

The real estate market is dragging down household appliance and furniture consumption

Not only non durable small commodities such as clothing and mobile phones that cannot be sold, but houses are also difficult to sell.

According to statistics, as of July, the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China decreased by 3.98% year-on-year. Except for a year-on-year increase of 15.54% in first tier cities, the year-on-year growth rate in second and third tier cities was negative, with a significant decrease of 13.22% in second tier cities.

Houses are difficult to sell, involving related industries and commodities.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the limit showed a positive growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a compound growth of 5.6%.

But among the 18 categories of goods, there are three categories with negative compound growth rates, including household appliances, furniture, and construction and decoration materials.

Among them, construction and decoration materials are the most affected commodities.

As of July, the current retail sales value of this type of product was 91.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, and a compound growth rate decrease of 6.2%.

Corresponding to specific enterprises, such as Red Star Macalline, which specializes in furniture, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of this year will decrease by RMB 860 million to RMB 890 million year-on-year, a decrease of 83.9% to 96.8% year-on-year.

Automobiles engage in a price war

However, cars, which are also large commodities, still have a certain market for new energy vehicles, and major brands have launched a series of "price wars", combined with preferential policies launched by the central and local governments, resulting in an increase in sales.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of July, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 4.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%.

Overall, in the current consumer market, "retaliatory consumption" appears in markets such as tourism and movies, and there is still significant room for domestic demand to increase, especially in real estate, where there is still a structural shortage of demand in lower tier cities.

Professor Liu Qiao from the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University suggests that proactive fiscal policies can be implemented to address the problem of declining balance sheet quality caused by the epidemic among residents and enterprises, and to vigorously promote investment in key industries.

On the consumer side, direct transfer payments to residents can be implemented through the issuance of cash and consumption vouchers, which not only enhances individual household consumption willingness and ability, but also effectively supports market entities to promote a virtuous cycle within the market.