Chips are the "war" itself, the 27th issue of Liberation Booklist | "Chip War": In Today's World Business | Chips | Liberation Booklist | "Chip War"

Liberation Book List: As a history professor, what was the opportunity for you to write a book related to chips?

Chris Miller: Yes, my major is history, and my main research area is Russian history. In my research, I kept thinking about a question: why was the Soviet Union able to produce many key technologies during the Cold War? The Soviet Union developed nuclear weapons and long-range missile systems in the early stages of the Cold War, but by the end of the war, it had fallen behind in military affairs, which in my opinion was a difficult problem. After studying the evolution of military technology, I found that the real changes did not occur in any specific military system, such as fighter jets or tanks, or anything similar. The real change lies in computing power, which is changing the way armies fight. This helped me realize that not only the military, but also the entire world has been changed by computing power, which has sparked my interest in semiconductors.

It has been proven that in the past 75 years, this has been one of the most interesting and important technologies that no other industry can compare to.

Liberation Booklist: Why are chips so important, often referred to as "bottleneck" technology?

Chris Miller: Chips are ubiquitous in every aspect of daily life, from guided missiles to microwaves, from smartphones to the stock market, and even semiconductor chips have become the cornerstone of the digital world. There are tens of thousands of semiconductor chip product models, and their penetration, widespread application, and irreplaceability have profoundly affected our lives and the world.

Chips, like oil from the previous era, are a scarce resource that the military world relies on for survival. The military advantage of the United States comes from its ability to apply chips to the military. Future wars rely more on chips than ever before, such as powerful processors that run artificial intelligence algorithms, large storage chips that process data, and perfectly tuned analog chips that perceive and generate radio waves.

Due to chip shortages, the production of automobiles and other products in Europe, Asia, and the Americas is occasionally interrupted. Similarly, many leaders have begun to view semiconductors as not only the key to prosperity, but also the key to the future.

Liberation Booklist: You mentioned in the book that the chip industry is a globalized industry?

Chris Miller: The chip industry is an example of division of labor, and no country can produce the most cutting-edge chips alone. Every country relies on others for at least a part of its chip manufacturing process, whether it is design, software, tools, or materials. Because we are talking about ultra complex and ultra precise machines.

Whether in terms of the number or scale of advanced chip components, for example, your smartphone has billions of internal chips. So far, the development of the chip industry still involves many interconnections and learning, and the supply chain is so complex that everyone must learn through coordination.

Liberation Booklist: Are you concerned about the escalation of the situation in the chip industry when you placed the word "war" in the title?

Chris Miller: Sometimes we use "war" as a metaphor for business, but I think it's a bit exaggerated. Only "chip war" is relevant, and even I think chips are the "war" itself.

Chips are determining war, not only the precision of weapons, but also chip based information technology, a comprehensive intelligence network, stronger automation and information mining, and more timely, accurate, and intelligent command systems.

For a long time, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and various European countries have engaged in fierce competition in the field of chip design and manufacturing, in order to win this war based on technology. The current strategy of the United States and Japan is to try to keep the most advanced technology in their own hands, but to maintain relative openness in the backward areas, which can encourage them to continue making progress in this area.

Liberation Booklist: Many people are concerned about how China will respond to the latest upgrade in the chip war?

Chris Miller: Chinese companies have achieved some meaningful success, such as SMIC's advanced logic production or the impressive graphics processor design of Wall Ren Technology. But almost every significant progress made by China has been subject to new export controls from the United States, making China's efforts to promote semiconductor self-sufficiency more important, but also more difficult and expensive.

For the Chinese chip industry, it is destined to be very difficult, but I think there are several aspects that are particularly important: the country firmly supports, the market determines giants, the country and the market each play their respective roles, and attaches great importance to basic research. Chip manufacturing is expensive, capital restrictions are real, but it is still necessary to establish a mechanism that adapts to the business model.

Liberation Booklist: The battle to control this industry will determine our future. What do you think is the future of the chip industry?

Chris Miller: This is a very difficult question, and the reason why it is quite difficult is that if you asked most experts 5 years ago to predict the future direction, few would have predicted the level of upgrades we have seen so far.

The next stage of the chip war will come with the slowdown of Moore's Law. For over half a century, the chip industry has been driven by Moore's Law, which states that the number of transistors on each chip will double every year, but this trend is becoming increasingly difficult to continue. The next challenge for the chip industry is to find new mechanisms to continue achieving technological progress from other mechanisms.

"Chip Wars: The Battle for the World's Most Critical Technologies" by Chris Miller, translated by Cai Shujun, published by Zhejiang People's Publishing House